‘Low birth rate shock’ has become realistic followed by employment shock.
Number of infants during the first half of this year was about 170,000, which is all time low in South Korean history. It is estimated that number of infants born this year will be about 300,000, which is about a third of the number of infants born in 1970 when this statistic was made available.
As severe low birth rate continues, it is expected that there will be sudden lack of labor after more than ten years. It is inevitable that low birth rate will become even more serious in 30 years later when infants born this year will be responsible for childbirth. Attention is now on a plan that will be put out by South Korean Government in October.
According to population trends put out by Statistics Korea, about 26,400 infants were born in the month of June which is about 2,500 infants (-8.7%) lower compared to June of last year.
As a result, there were 171,600 infants (89,600 infants during the first quarter, 82,00 during the second quarter) born during the first half of this year. This is about 16,500 infants lower than last year (188,100), when it was previously the lowest point.
It is expected that number of infants born this year will be the all time low at about 300,000. While annual number of infants born was between 60,000 and 100,000 until 1990s, it was at about 400,000 since 2002 for about 15 years and it felt under 300,000 for the first time in 2017.
‘Total birth rate’, which is an average number of babies born by one woman, is calculated to be 0.97 for the second quarter of this year. It is lower than last year’s lowest value at 1.05.
One of the reasons for low birth rate is reduction of population mainly responsible for childbirth.
People who are mostly responsible for childbirth currently are between the ages of 30 and 34 and were born between 1983 and 1987, and number of infants born dropped sharply at that time. According to Statistics Korea, number of infants born had been remained at about 800,000 annually between 1979 and 1982 and it started decreasing from 769,000 in 1983, 674,000 in 1984, 655,000 in 1985, 636,000 in 1986, and to 623,000 in 1987.
“After 30 years when infants born recently will be mainly responsible for childbirth, there will be even more serious low birth rate.” said a representative for Statistics Korea.
Staying single and late marriage are also reasons for low birth rate.
98% of South Korean citizens have babies while being married. However, number of marriages is on decline as it went from 329,000 cases in 2011 to 264,000 cases in 2017. There were 132,000 cases of marriages during the first half of this year which is about 4% lower than that of the first quarter of last year.
Low birth rate leads to low labor which then leads to reduction in economic vitality.
Working age population for South Korea (15 to 64) has been going down since last year after it reached the highest point in 2016 (37.63 million). It is estimated that it will decline more rapidly after ten years.
As a result, South Korean Government is going to announce its solution for low birth rate in October. It will be interesting to see whether it has prepared a groundbreaking solution unlike its plan that was announced last year to discuss about just expanding and enhancing previous policies.
Statistics Korea is planning to calculate estimated future population every 2 years when it was previously every 5 years after seeing recent trend of low birth rate.
Staff Reporter Yoo, Seonil | ysi@etnews.com